“In 2050 we will all…”

is one of the most common opening lines in trend presentations.

It sounds confident. It travels well in slide decks. And it reinforces the stereotype of trend work as a 100% guaranteed prediction of the future. The most useful trend research doesn’t try to be right about one future, it helps you become aware of and ready for several.

Why this matters now

In many organisations, “trend research” is still misunderstood as a glossy forecast, a list of hot topics, or a guru-style prediction.

But innovation leaders, designers and strategists don’t need more certainty theatre, they need better ways to explore uncertainty without getting lost in it.

That’s why BIS Publishers chose to publish How to Research Trends: Move beyond trend watching to kickstart innovation by Els Dragt (Studio Elsewhere). Drawing on two decades of practice as a trend researcher, lecturer, and trainer, Els demystifies the craft and makes it usable inside actual team work, under real constraints.

5 Practical Takeaways from

“Prediction or exploration?”

1) Name your belief about the future

Trend research is never neutral. Maybe you believe the future is predetermined and that you don’t have a lot of influence. Or maybe you perceive it to be very open and malleable. Most trend practitioners operate in the middle: the future is open within limits—shaped by past and present, but not predetermined. In your next trend session, ask the team: “How do we perceive the future? A determined, open-but-not-empty, or open?” Capture the answers before you analyse any signals.

2) Replace “what will happen” with “what could happen”

Accurate prediction is impossible at 100% because the future can’t be verified upfront, and because human behaviour is messy and variable. Trend research is therefore strongest when seen as exploration: mapping plausible directions and implications. Rewrite forecast language in your deck. Swap “In 2030 customers will…” for “One possible direction is…, which would change…” and add what you would monitor to know if it’s gaining momentum.

3) Treat uncertainty as a feature, not a flaw.

The future isn’t “true or false”; it’s a space of possibilities. When you narrow down your research too early and focus too much on percentage points, you reduce imagination and miss alternatives, especially the disruptive signals. For the trends and signals you’re tracking, create three lanes: “likely”, “plausible but uncertain”, and “wild but meaningful.” Then discuss what each lane would require your organisation to rethink.

4) Know what Big Data can’t do.

Predictive analytics can be powerful for near-term behaviour (“what will you buy next?”). But it leans heavily on existing and historical data, which makes it weak at capturing unexpected variables and longer-term societal shifts. Audit one trend question you’re trying to answer. If it’s 10–20 years out, don’t ask your data team for a prediction, ask for present constraints and emerging anomalies, then complement with qualitative scanning.

5) Build comfort with ambiguity into your process.

You can spot early signals and still not know whether they’ll spread, how fast, or in what form. That’s not failure, that’s the nature of trend work. The skill is staying rigorous while admitting what you don’t know (yet). Add an “uncertainties & assumptions” slide to every trend update.

What you gain from this approach

When trend research becomes exploration rather than prediction, it stops being a performance and starts being a capability and a mindset. You don’t just collect signals, you build shared language, sharper judgment, and better strategic options under uncertainty.

“Predicting the future” is only one of the themes in How to Research Trends. The book goes further by exploring topics that are essential for creative professionals who need to make decisions, not just gather inspiration, and by showing how to turn trend insights into practical innovation opportunities that teams can act on.

To dive deeper into the full approach, explore the book by Els Dragt on our website: